The race for california governor has crystallized into a tight contest, but one crucial variable remains: when voters actually return their ballots. Recent surveys place Xavier Becerra ahead of a close pairing of Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton, yet uneven turnout patterns — especially among Democrats — are injecting uncertainty into who will advance to the November general election.
More than a few million Californians have already mailed or dropped off ballots, but statewide ballot return rates are lower than in a general election cycle. The voter data firm Political Data Inc. (PDI) reports that as of Sunday just 15.10% of all ballots had been returned, a pace comparable to the three days before the June 2026 primary. That headline number masks important party-level differences that could determine the top-two finishers.
What the polls are showing
Multiple independent polls last week highlighted the same three frontrunners. One poll put Becerra around the mid-20s in support, with Steyer and Hilton nearly tied for the second slot. Another survey swapped which of the two trailing candidates sat in second, but both produced the same broader picture: a three-way dynamic where small shifts in late ballots could change the outcome.
Under California’s top-two primary system, the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election regardless of party. That rule encourages strategic thinking by voters: some Democrats are apparently delaying or rethinking their choices to try to ensure at least one Democrat reaches the November ballot rather than allowing two Republicans to advance.
Turnout patterns and party differences
Digging into PDI’s numbers reveals the imbalance. As of the most recent snapshot, roughly 15% of Democratic ballots had been returned — down from about 17% at the same point in 2026. By contrast, 19% of Republican ballots were in, up from 17% four years earlier. Those party-level shifts help explain why the race feels volatile even when poll leaders appear steady.
Paul Mitchell, PDI’s vice president, identifies three forces at work. First, the Republican side of the ballot is less fractured: GOP voters primarily face a choice between two prominent options. Second, Republicans historically mailed ballots earlier and appear to be reverting to that practice after a period of discouragement at the national level in 2026. Third, older white Democrats show the largest delay in returns, suggesting either indecision or a strategic wait-and-see approach.
Strategic voting and indecision
Some Democratic voters seem to be making choices with an eye toward the general election math. Mitchell explained that narratives about the possibility of two Republicans advancing have pushed some Democrats to hold off or to recalibrate their votes to support candidates they see as most viable. Another PDI analyst, Kevin Callan, noted that Democrats may recognize the higher stakes: whichever Democrat makes the runoff could be positioned to win the governorship, increasing the weight of their primary choice.
The practical effect is a late-deciding bloc that can swing close margins. With polls showing Becerra comfortably ahead but Steyer and Hilton jostling for the second slot, even a modest late surge by any one candidate among returning ballots could alter the November lineup.
Broader election context and what to watch
Beyond raw percentages, two recent developments reshaped the field earlier in the year: several Democrats dropped out, consolidating progressive support, and national attention — including endorsements — boosted certain candidates’ visibility. Observers say those shifts reduced the early fragmentation that once made the prospect of two Republicans advancing more plausible.
As ballots continue to arrive, the key metrics to monitor are party-specific return rates, geographic patterns in late returns, and whether undecided or late-deciding Democratic voters gravitate toward one of the remaining Democratic hopefuls. Because margins between second and third in the polls are within typical poll error, the election hangs on a handful of percentage points in many districts.
Practical implications for voters
For Californians still deciding, the stakes are clear: under the top-two primary, every primary vote contributes directly to shaping the general-election choices. Voters who want a particular party represented in November may weigh not only personal preference but also the strategic calculus of advancing a candidate who can win statewide. Election officials continue to accept returned ballots through the legally established deadline, and millions of outstanding ballots remain in circulation.
In short, the governor’s race is settled in polls only to a degree. With the combination of a leading candidate and a tight race for the second spot, late returns and strategic Democratic hesitation are likely to determine the final pairing for November.
