The California primary marks a decisive moment in the state’s political calendar. Voters are casting or returning ballots that will determine which names appear on the November ballot to succeed Governor Gavin Newsom after two terms, and they are also choosing candidates for the U.S. House, the state legislature and multiple statewide offices.
Turnout, independent expenditures and the unique dynamics of California’s top-two primary system mean the final picture may not be clear on election night. Ballots with a today postmark can arrive through June 9, and the Secretary of State has until July 10 to certify results, so close races could take days or weeks to resolve.
The governor’s contest: front-runners and the top-two calculus
The fight to replace Governor Newsom has narrowed into a competitive three-way mix. Democrats Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer are locked in a tight battle with Republican Steve Hilton. Under California’s top-two primary format, the two candidates with the most votes advance to November regardless of party affiliation, creating potential for unusual matchups and strategic voting patterns.
Each candidate brings distinct strengths: Becerra draws establishment support and considerable institutional backing; Steyer has poured his own resources into the race and emphasizes climate and consumer issues; Hilton has attracted a substantial number of small donors and national attention. These different bases of support will shape which two move forward.
Money matters: record outside spending and a billionaire bankroll
Campaign finance has loomed large in this cycle. Outside groups — organizations that can accept unlimited contributions — have already reported roughly $79 million in spending aimed at influencing the gubernatorial primary, eclipsing prior cycles. That level of independent expenditure signals how much special interests are investing to shape California’s next administration.
Targeted opposition and corporate-backed PACs
A major independent effort funded by the state Realtors association, the California Chamber of Commerce, Pacific Gas & Electric and a prominent labor union has spent about $32 million on ads opposing Tom Steyer. The same and other industry groups have spent roughly $13 million to support Xavier Becerra through political action committees. Notable corporate donors backing pro-Becerra efforts include Chevron, McDonald’s, DaVita and California Resources Corp., each among larger contributors.
Self-funding extremes and spending records
Tom Steyer’s own campaign has reached unprecedented self-financing levels, with more than $213 million deployed by his operation so far. That personal spending has enabled a saturation-style campaign: heavy ad buys, influencer partnerships and out-of-home promotions. By comparison, historically large self-funded primary bids in California have been far smaller when adjusted for scale.
Other fundraising stories and candidate trajectories
Several related funding narratives are influencing the landscape beyond the top-tier names. The late entry of San Jose Mayor Mahan drew substantial tech-backed spending — nearly $22 million from outside committees — but his low statewide profile left the effort short of expectations. Donors from the tech sector sought a candidate emphasizing efficiency and low taxes, yet the ad spending did not translate into the required broad name recognition.
When former Rep. Eric Swalwell exited the race amid controversy, many of his supporters and donors moved to Becerra, strengthening the former U.S. attorney general’s donor base. In contrast, Republican Steve Hilton amassed the largest raw number of individual backers in the field, with more than 20,000 donors, a sizable share from outside California and a fundraising bump after a high-profile endorsement.
Down-ballot stakes and federal implications
Alongside the governor’s contest, voters are deciding competitive U.S. House races that will help determine which party controls Congress for the remaining two years of the presidential term. The ballot also includes statewide offices such as lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, controller, treasurer, superintendent of public instruction, insurance commissioner and members of the Board of Equalization, plus numerous Assembly and State Senate seats.
Because of the varied mix of open seats and incumbents, outcomes in these races could reshape California’s policy agenda and influence national power balances. Close contests may require extended counting and certification, especially where mail ballots and provisional ballots matter.
What to watch next
Expect updates as counties finish counting ballots that arrive through June 9 and as provisional and late-arriving returns are tabulated. The Secretary of State’s eventual certification by July 10 will provide finality, but interim days will be filled with shifting leads in tight races. Observers will be watching fundraising patterns, geographic turnout, and whether the top-two result produces an intra-party showdown or a cross-party November matchup.
For readers following California politics, the primary is more than a snapshot: it is a reveal of political coalitions, a test of deep-pocketed influence, and a preview of how campaigns will be run through November under intense scrutiny and record spending.
