The political landscape of Orange County is undergoing a significant transformation as the race for the Board of Supervisors reaches its climax. With key districts still in contention, the outcome could shift the balance of power between Republicans and Democrats. As of Thursday night, the results are far from certain, leaving both parties on edge.
The Fifth District, encompassing large portions of South Orange County and the coast, is at the center of this political drama. The district, which has a slight 5% Republican voter registration advantage, is witnessing a tight race between incumbent Democrat Supervisor Katrina Foley and Republican challenger Assemblywoman Diane Dixon. With 270,000 ballots remaining to be counted, the final outcome is still up in the air.
The Fifth District Showdown
As of the latest updates, Assemblywoman Diane Dixon holds a narrow lead with 48% of the vote, while Supervisor Katrina Foley trails closely behind with nearly 46%. The race has taken a dramatic turn since Election Night, when Foley initially led but was later overtaken by Dixon. The outcome hinges on whether either candidate can secure more than 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff election in November.
Supervisor Foley, who has held the seat since 2026, expressed confidence before the election, stating, “I will look forward to when the election is over. The reality is, I’m for sure winning the primary, it’s a matter of whether we win outright or move onto the general.” However, the current results tell a different story. Foley’s campaign received substantial support from various associations, including the Orange County Association of Deputy Sheriffs, Orange County Professional Firefighters Association, and the Orange County Employees Association, which collectively spent $812,000 on her behalf.
On the other hand, Dixon’s campaign benefited from the Lincoln Club, a group of conservative donors, which spent $44,000 advertising for Dixon and over $306,000 attacking Foley’s candidacy. The Lincoln Club also allocated $18,000 to support Lucy Vellema, an educator who is currently holding less than 6% of the vote.
The Fourth District Face-Off
In the Fourth District, which covers northern cities like Fullerton and Anaheim, Democratic Buena Park Mayor Connor Traut and Republican OC Board of Education Trustee Tim Shaw are set to face each other in a runoff. As of 12:30 a.m. Wednesday, Shaw held a slight lead with nearly 33% of the vote, while Traut trailed with just under 32%. The race is incredibly close, with only 2,225 votes separating the two candidates out of nearly 70,000 counted.
The remaining candidates, Fullerton Mayor Fred Jung and La Habra Councilwoman Rose Espinoza, each held less than 19% of the vote. The outcome of this race will determine the representation for a district that has seen significant political shifts in recent years.
The Second District: A Clearer Picture
In contrast to the tight races in the Fourth and Fifth Districts, the Second District is seeing a clearer outcome. Democratic Supervisor Vicente Sarmiento is on track to win reelection with over 62% of the vote, meaning he won’t face a runoff in November. Sarmiento’s strong lead reflects the consistent support he has received from the community since taking office.
As the county registrar’s office continues to count the remaining ballots, the political future of Orange County hangs in the balance. The results of these races will not only determine the composition of the Board of Supervisors but also shape the county’s policies and priorities for years to come.
