The Los Angeles mayoral race has taken an unexpected turn as City Councilmember Nithya Raman has surged ahead of reality television personality Spencer Pratt. The latest vote counts reveal a significant shift in the dynamics of the race, with Raman now leading by a narrow margin.
This development comes as a surprise to many, given Pratt’s early lead in the primary election. However, as more mail-in ballots are counted, Raman’s support has steadily increased, reflecting the changing preferences of Los Angeles voters.
Raman’s steady rise in the polls
According to the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder, Raman has gained ground with each update of the vote count. On Saturday, her lead over Pratt slimmed to just one percentage point, with Pratt at 27% and Raman at slightly over 26%. This narrow gap represents a significant shift from earlier counts, where Pratt held a more comfortable lead.
Political analysts have noted that Raman’s rise can be attributed to the late arrival of mail-in ballots, which tend to favor progressive and younger voters. These voters, who form the core of Raman’s support base, are known to hold onto their ballots longer, contributing to her steady gain in the polls.
The impact of mail-in ballots
The latest batch of mail-in ballots has been particularly favorable to Raman, with her receiving 23,514 votes compared to Pratt’s 10,336. This trend is consistent with the 2026 mayoral primary, where real estate developer Rick Caruso initially led before being overtaken by Karen Bass as more ballots were counted.
Paul Mitchellvice president of the bipartisan voter data firm Political Data Inc., has observed that Raman’s gains are consistent with historical patterns. He suggests that unless Pratt receives a significant boost from remaining ballots, Raman is likely to maintain her lead.
The runoff scenario
With Mayor Karen Bass already secured in the runoff, the second-place finisher between Raman and Pratt will face her in the November 3 election. The latest developments suggest that Raman is poised to secure this position, given her steady gains and the favorable trends in mail-in ballot counting.
Political strategist Michael Trujillo has expressed strong doubts about Pratt’s ability to regain the lead. He believes that Pratt’s support has reached a plateau, making it unlikely for him to overtake Raman in the remaining vote counts.
The Los Angeles mayoral race continues to evolve, with the outcome hinging on the remaining ballots. As the count progresses, all eyes are on Nithya Raman and her potential to challenge Mayor Karen Bass in the upcoming runoff.
