The world’s climate experts are increasingly concerned about the development of a strong El Niño event. This climate pattern, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, has the potential to significantly alter weather patterns worldwide.
While predicting weather with absolute certainty is challenging, the consensus among scientists is growing that this El Niño could be particularly intense. The implications of such an event are far-reaching, with potential impacts ranging from increased rainfall in some regions to severe droughts in others.
Understanding the Current Forecast
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has indicated a 97% chance that El Niño will be either ‘strong’ or ‘very strong’ over the next three months. There is an 81% probability that it will reach ‘very strong’ status, colloquially known as a ‘super’ El Niño.
This climate pattern typically lasts between nine to twelve months, and its effects are already being felt. The warmer ocean temperatures associated with El Niño can lead to increased heat waves both on land and in the sea, exacerbating the impacts of human-caused global warming.
The Science Behind El Niño
El Niño is a complex climate pattern that occurs every two to seven years. It is marked by a combination of warmer water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and changes in atmospheric conditions. The typical east-to-west trade winds along the equator weaken or even reverse, leading to a rise in sea level in the western Pacific and the creation of what is known as a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave.
This wave brings warm water from the western Pacific to the central and eastern Pacific, further weakening the trade winds. This creates a positive feedback loop, where weaker winds lead to more warm water shifting eastward, which in turn weakens the winds even more.
Potential Global Impacts
The effects of El Niño vary significantly depending on the region and the season. In the southern United States, including Southern California, Texas, and Florida, El Niño typically brings more stormy weather during the winter. Conversely, regions farther north, like the Pacific Northwest, often experience drier-than-normal conditions.
Globally, El Niño can bring very dry conditions to Australia and northern South America, potentially triggering droughts. Meanwhile, eastern Africa may experience wetter conditions. The pattern also increases the risk of heat waves on land and at sea, which are already being exacerbated by human-caused global warming.
Climate scientist Zachary Labe of the nonprofit Climate Central notes that El Niño acts to boost temperatures temporarily, indicating a high likelihood of breaking new global temperature records in the coming months.
Southern California’s Expectations
For Southern California, a strong El Niño could mean a higher chance of above-average rainfall, increasing the risk of flash floods and landslides. Historical data shows that during three of the four ‘very strong’ El Niños on record, downtown Los Angeles received significantly more rain than average. In two of these events, the rainfall was more than double the usual yearly amount.
However, the connection is not absolute. During the last ‘very strong’ El Niño in 2015-16, downtown Los Angeles received only half of its typical annual rainfall. The last El Niño, in 2026-24, was classified as ‘strong’ and brought well-above-average rainfall to coastal Southern California and slightly above-normal precipitation to coastal Northern California.
Interior areas like the Sierra Nevada and southeastern California deserts experienced below-normal precipitation during the 2026-24 El Niño. Additionally, there is a potential for more high-tide flooding, as the ‘very strong’ El Niño of 2015-16 brought record coastal erosion along many California beaches.
This year’s El Niño is also expected to prolong an existing marine heat wave off the Southern California coast, which is currently in effect for reasons unrelated to El Niño.
