The National Weather Service in San Diego has issued a string of alerts as Tropical Storm Rachel closes in on the region. The system is expected to brush the coastline Saturday night and intensify through early Sunday, delivering a mix of heavy precipitation, damaging wind gusts and a notable rise in surf. Officials from the National Weather Service and the Weather Prediction Center have placed a Flood Watch in place from 11 pm Saturday to 8 pm Sunday, and a Coastal Flood Warning that lasts until 3 pm Sunday before shifting to an advisory through 2 pm Tuesday.
Wind threat and watches
A tropical storm watch is active for San diego county until further notice. Forecast models show wind gusts ranging from 30 to 70 mph across the coastal and inland zones, with sustained speeds of about 39 mph representing a worst-case scenario. Such gusts can rip unsecured awnings, mobile homes and light construction, topple shallow-rooted trees and leave power lines downed. Residents are urged to park vehicles away from trees and other objects that could become projectiles during the peak wind window late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Rainfall totals and intensity
The rainfall totals projected through Sunday vary by terrain. Coastal areas and valleys are likely to see between 0.40 in and 1.50 in the mountains could receive 1 in to 3 in and the deserts are expected to accumulate 0.50 in to 2 in. Hourly rates may peak at 0.50 to 0.60 in per hour in the low-lying zones, 0.70 to 1 in per hour on the slopes, and 0.50 to 0.70 in per hour across desert stretches. The Weather Prediction Center labeled the event a “Moderate threat of Excessive Rainfall,” indicating a 40 % chance of flooding and a high likelihood of flash-flood episodes.
Coastal flooding and beach hazards
Elevated surf combined with on-shore winds and high tides will generate significant coastal flooding and beach erosion. The Coastal Flood Warning remains active until 3 pm Sunday, after which a Coastal Flood Advisory will cover minor inundation through Tuesday afternoon. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Sunday morning until 11 pm, warning of waves reaching 5 to 9 ft and powerful rip currents. Roads and walking paths along the shoreline may become impassable, and low-lying properties—including homes, businesses and some critical infrastructure—are at risk of flood damage.
Rainfall and flood risk across terrain
Beyond the immediate coastal concerns, the inland valleys, mountains and deserts face their own flood challenges. Rivers, creeks and streams in the Apple and Lucerne Valleys, Coachella Valley and the San Diego County deserts could experience rapid runoff, especially where the terrain funnels water into narrow channels. The Flood Watch covers a broad swath of Southwest California, from the San Diego coastal strip to the mountains of Riverside and San Bernardino counties. Residents in flood-prone zones should monitor local updates, protect vulnerable property and be prepared to relocate if water levels rise unexpectedly.
What follows: cooler air and a secondary Pacific system
After Rachel’s passage, a colder Pacific storm is slated to bring scattered showers from Monday into Tuesday morning, though impacts are expected to be modest. Anticipated rainfall for the secondary system ranges from 0.10 in to 0.25 in along the coast and valleys, 0.25 to 0.50 in in the mountains, and up to 0.10 in in the deserts. Temperatures will tumble 20 – 40 °F below the recent unseasonably warm stretch, with Saturday highs in the 70s-80s dropping to the 60s-70s by Sunday inland and into the 50s in the mountains. A warm-up is anticipated by Tuesday, followed by a return of Santa Ana winds late next week, which could push coastal temperatures back into the 80s and inland readings toward the 90s.
Chief Meteorologist Megan Parry of ABC 10News has been tracking the storm’s evolution and will provide updates on social media. Residents can follow her on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter for the latest guidance as the situation unfolds.
